Will the Force be with the NDP?

I don’t know if B.C. NDP leader John Horgan is a Star Wars fan or not, but if he’s seen the new movie he might have leapt from his seat as the ragtag rebel forces, confronting the latest Empire weaponry, remember that “there’s always a design flaw in these things.”

The B.C. Liberal empire has ruled the galaxy for almost 15 years now. Like the Death Star, it is apparently invincible, having laid waste to NDP forces in four consecutive elections thanks to its deadly, laser-like focus on the economy. In the last episode, Premier Christy Clark, as with all great film villains, delivered her most devastating blow only after everyone assumed she was dead. Now, with a nod to Lord Vader, she is rarely seen without protective headgear, and she tightens her grip on power by skilfully dividing rural B.C. against urban dwellers to conquer us all.

But there is a design flaw. There always is.

The B.C. Liberal empire is an explosively unstable coalition of voters. A very large number of them recently voted for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal party. Another big chunk voted for Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives. The fact that such bitter enemies find common ground in the B.C. Liberals is testament to the skill of Gordon Campbell, and now Clark, in managing to hold it together. It’s a tricky arrangement, and it is about to get trickier.

The federal Liberal base of the B.C. Liberals, newly flush with enthusiasm for activist government and sunny ways, will be looking for more of the same in the provincial wing as we approach the 2017 election. Clark, however, will be taking pains not just to avoid alienating her federal Conservative base, but also to establish some safe distance from a Liberal government in Ottawa, lest she pay for their coming failures and lose her credibility as an alienated Western populist. Each step Trudeau takes to fulfil key promises on Senate and electoral reform, legalization of marijuana, expansion of the Canada Pension Plan, and more, presents a trap for Clark, and an opportunity for the B.C. NDP. In many cases, the wily Clark will have to sabotage Trudeau to placate her federal Conservative supporters. If the NDP can shoot a couple of laser blasts at just the right number of these vulnerabilities, uniting the centre-left by seizing on the anger of federal Liberals betrayed, the resulting chain reaction might just blow the whole thing up.

That is, of course, unless the B.C. Liberals manage to blast the NDP forces to bits with their focus on the economy. Again.

For 20 years, the NDP has found no defence against this powerful attack on their own vulnerability, a perceived indifference or outright hostility to economic growth. Past efforts to shift the focus of elections to the many ethical failures or heartless spending cuts of the B.C. Liberals have simply not been able to outgun voters’ fear that the NDP might stifle the growth needed to create jobs and opportunities. More recent attempts to calm voters with assurances of budgets balanced, bold new programs limited and taxes increased only prudently and predictably met with even greater failure. Mistaking fiscal conservatism for fiscal competence, pitching restraint instead of growth, these campaigns missed the opportunity to speak to voters grown weary of failed austerity and renew the social democratic vision of reducing inequality by increasing growth in a sustainable and equitable manner.

Every great franchise runs out of ideas and needs a reboot now and then. A new cast of fresh young faces is needed — candidates who can bring new perspective and new relevance to the NDP, including those who can balance proven track records in business management and private-sector innovation with progressive solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. They could help defend the NDP against the coming attack on economic competence while breathing new life into the old themes: that the strongest economies are also the most fair, inclusive and compassionate; that the strongest growth is also the most environmentally sustainable; and that B.C. itself is strongest when we unite our rural and urban communities to fulfil our shared potential for global greatness.

The election is now just 16 months away. Will the NDP bring A New Hope? Will their Force Awaken? Or will we watch as The Empire Strikes Back? Depends on this it does: The NDP has to hit that tiny exhaust port repeatedly with a clear, compelling and relevant message, splitting the B.C. Liberal vote just like shooting womp rats back home. But the Liberals are already charging up that big laser. The NDP have got keep their shields up. They can do that by speaking to the optimism and aspiration of B.C. voters looking for growth and opportunity, not just amplifying their frustration and resentment.

David Bieber is a Vancouver communications consultant who has worked with civic, provincial and federal political leaders, labour unions in B.C. and political parties in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. He was director of party communications for the B.C. NDP from 2003 to 2009.